Sports Talk

As long as humans have walked the Earth there’s been something unsettling about the dark, an uncertainty that anything can happen, but in Happy Valley this Saturday the Penn State Nittany Lions won’t have this unpredictability on their side as they face the #4 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Nittany Lions are looking to do something they haven’t been able to since 2016 in beating the Buckeyes in a matchup which has had massive effects on the outcome of the Big10 and the playoff picture as a whole. The past eight times this game has been played it has been a ranked matchup although this is only the second time that Penn State has entered as the higher ranked team. In short, this is a game that matters, a game that has historically mattered, and a game that is going to have a massive impact on one of the most unpredictable college football seasons to date. It’s a game that will showcase the pageantry of college football, the beauty of its atmosphere as two of the games biggest markets bring all of their tradition together to face each other in this rivalry. It’s a game that in any other conference would be played at night. Let’s take a look at some of the history of this matchup and discern if the timing of this game could have an effect on the outcome.

The Past

The date is December 4^th, 2016: selection day for the college football playoff. In the prior week’s rankings Penn State was voted the #7 team in the nation following two early losses, but now after a BIG10 Championship win over #6 Wisconsin, fans feel that the Nittany Lions deserve the fourth spot in the college football playoffs. Though they’d take the spot any way they could get it, these fans felt strongly that after their win over, now #2, Ohio State it’s them who should be kicked out of contention. These fans have a point, Ohio State is the only team currently ranked in the top 4 to not be a conference champion which has only been highlighted as they’ve sat idle while the Nittany Lions have been draped in confetti. Since their loss against Michigan in week 4 Penn State has looked like one of the best teams in the country, and with a backfield containing Saquon Barkley and inconsistent but explosive play by Quarterback Trace McSorely, there is legitimate reason to think they could beat any team in the country. So, with bated breath fans wait to hear the selection committee’s results. With all of the hopes of one of the best teams in Penn State’s recent history on the line the committee ushers in their final verdict: the top four teams in the country will remain virtually unchanged other than a flip between the number two and three teams (only changing who calls the coin toss in a neutral site game), and for their effort the Nittany Lions will move up to the #5 team in the country, just barely missing the playoffs.

After the selection committees decision a now deflated Penn State team moves on to play in the Rose Bowl, where they would go on to lose in a close shootout 49-52 against #9 USC. Surely, that Ohio State team fared better though, this was a team full of future NFL talent that had beaten four ranked teams over the course of this season. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, they were shutout losing 0-31 to a Clemson team that would go on to lose in the National Championship game to Alabama. It’s this loss that particularly stung to fans of the Nittany Lions as it showed that Ohio State truly was not a competitive selection for the playoffs. Despite their close loss in the Rose Bowl the what ifs will continue to linger in the minds of Penn State fans who missed their best chance at a national championship since they won it all in 1986.

Now

The next eight years have not been kind to Penn State. After that season, where they barely missed out on the playoffs, time has only proven one thing, a narrative that when the big game comes the Nittany Lions crawl back into their caves and hide away. It’s a narrative that has marred the reputation of head coach James Franklin and damped the reputation of this game as a rivalry converting it to just another game in Ohio State’s path to The Game against Michigan at the end of their season. However, this year isn’t the past eight years, college football has changed drastically in the past season. We’ve lost conferences and added playoff games. The Big10 has completely altered their format removing divisions, and though a conference title couldn’t bring Penn State a playoff spot in 2016 it would guarantee one in 2024.

Entering this game Penn State has looked nigh untouchable outside of a close game at USC, but it has not been smooth sailing this week entering the matchup against the Buckeyes. In the Nittany Lions final drive of the first half against Wisconsin last week Quarterback Drew Allar suffered a knee injury missing the rest of the game. Luckily for Penn State three-star sophomore quarterback Beau Pribula was able to lead the Nittany Lions to victory, going 11/13 passing with 1 touchdown in the second half at Wisconsin. With a ranked opponent coming to town the current expectation is that Allar will be a game time decision, and though Pribula performed admirably, there’s no doubt that James Franklin would prefer his starting quarterback and leader running the offense. For Ohio State there has only been one notable stumble throughout their season. In a marquee matchup at current #1 Oregon, Ohio state Quarterback Will Howard slid down late in the game in Oregon territory. With such little time left, Howard’s slide allowed the clock to run out and won Oregon the game 32-31. Howard, a Penn State fan growing up, has expressed his excitement for the game, and it is clear that he is itching for a chance to win a legacy game in Happy Valley.

If this game is one that could shape the outlook of the college football playoff, then why is it not a primetime night game? At the end of the day, this decision is purely due to the dollars, 7 billion of them to be exact. In 2022, Fox, NBC, and CBS signed a deal with the Big10 that would pay the conference $1 billion, per year for the next seven years. Fox is the coverage provider for this game in particular, and as such they’ve assigned it to their flagship college football program Big Noon Saturday, while sending their pregame show Big Noon Kickoff to State College, PA as well. In a game that has the potential to draw some of the most eyes this season it only makes sense for Fox to use it to promote their most valuable show, but how will this impact the game? There’s something to be said about Happy Valley and Beaver Stadium at night. During James Franklin’s tenure (since 2014) the Nittany Lions are 14-3 in home night games, and while that number may seem daunting it’s important to note that the record against Ohio State in that time is 1-3 accounting for all of their night losses. In comparison to this their home day game record over the same period is 44-10. With the losses to Ohio State included the difference is slight, favoring night games by 1% (82% at night vs. 81% during the day). When games against Ohio State are removed Penn State is a perfect 13-0 at night while only being 44-9 during the day in comparison. Despite their role as “little brother” to Ohio State during Franklin’s tenure, no matter who they play it is harder to compete at Beaver Stadium at night. Penn State isn’t just playing anyone this Saturday, however, and this game comes with all of the baggage that accompanies a rivalry. So, in a day game where they have historically performed worse, against an opponent they’ve struggled to defeat, with a question mark at the games most important position, will Penn State be able to find a spark or will this matchup go down as another yearly victory by Ohio State on their path towards a championship. All that’s left for us is to sit back, relax, and try and watch the fireworks of this marquee matchup through the noon sun.