Sports Talk

Since the introduction of the College Football Playoff (CFP) in 2014 the release of the committee’s first rankings has brought with it an added amount of excitement to a Tuesday in the middle of the season. The committee is not required to replicate the Associated Press (AP) poll, which is regarded as the preeminent poll before the CFP poll is released, though they often use it as a guide to help aid their decision. The result is a shuffling of various teams up and down throughout the poll, which can mean that much more in the new expanded era of the College Football Playoffs. So, what can we learn from past first weeks of the CFP Poll, what teams would have made it in had the 12-team playoff existed, and does making the first poll guarantee you a playoff spot this year?

An important thing to note is the changed format of the College Football Playoff with the 12-team playoff, in a new landscape of college football. A major addition this year is the automatic conference championship bid. Initially, these bids would have gone to the 5 highest ranked conference champions in the poll, however with the virtual dissolution of the PAC-12, in the modern era the top four spots in the playoff will go to the four Power 4 (ACC, Big10, Big12, SEC) conferences while one automatic bid will remain for the highest-ranking Group of 5 conference champion. So, while the playoffs will incorporate 12-teams that does not necessarily guarantee that teams ranked 1-12 will get a spot. For example, if the highest Group of 5 champion is ranked 16^th in the poll, they will earn the 12^th seed and only non-conference champion teams ranked 1-11 will be eligible to earn at large bids.

Fans of the team ranked 12 will be happy to know that if the 12-team playoff would have been utilized throughout the tenure of the poll (Since 2014), with the top 5 ranked conference champions earning automatic bids, there would has not been an occurrence where the 5^th conference champion was ranked lower than 12^th. Although it is important to note that in 2021 Oklahoma would have been the 6^th highest ranked conference champion (of the Big12) behind the other Power conferences as well as AAC Champion Cincinnati and not received a bid. In the modern format, however, they would have received an automatic bid and removed the 12^th ranked team from contention. The aspect of the current format that has the potential to alter this trend is that the 5^th conference champion will come from a Group of 5 school. Past CFP polls show that only 3 Group of 5 conference champions have placed within the top-12 on selection day (AAC Champions Cincinnati 2020, 2021 and UCF, 2018) and both of the schools who have accomplished this feat have since joined the Big12, a power conference. It is because of this that teams will most likely be competing for at large bids in the 1-11 spots of the poll.

So, what can we take away from today’s poll? Of teams to be ranked in the top 12 in the first poll of years past, 77.5% (93/120) would have gone on to qualify for the College Football Playoffs that year. Furthermore, 84% of eventual top 5 conference champions (42/50) were ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP poll of the season. I expect the number of teams to make the playoff from the initial poll to remain at around 9 out of 12, however with the current format inviting a, likely lower seeded, Group of 5 champion, it is safe to assume that the percentage of eventual conference champions to drop into the 65-75% range.

The 12-team playoff in conjunction with conference realignment has electrified the world or college football, and on the release of the first poll, we’ll have a whole new ranking of teams to pick apart and analyze. While we do that, however, let’s not forget, no team will make the playoffs solely based upon their rankings today, nor are they defined by statistics. What we can gather from CFP polls of the past, though, is that no matter who you root for there’s always some hope that this Saturday could be your team’s shot to propel themselves into contention, and with that kind of hope there’s nothing you can do except watch.