Sports Talk

Week 11 of college football provided fans with some of the best games in recent memory. In a week where four ranked teams fell, we were treated to a field rush as Georgia Tech toppled undefeated Miami and a double field rush in an Ole Miss victory over Georgia which will live on in the annals of the program. Usually as we inch closer to College Football Playoff selection day the playoff contenders and picture become ever clearer, however in a week with so many big wins and equally large losses the committee was faced with a daunting task in ranking the teams around the league. So, with a massive week of football ahead let’s take a look inside the top 12 and also at the playoff hopefuls just entering the rankings. 

The biggest surprise of this week’s rankings was the makeup of the top five. While undefeated Oregon was all but a lock to remain at #1 and Ohio State, whose sole loss was in a game which came down to the wire against Oregon, standing steady at #2 the rest of the top 5 seemed to be in a state of upheaval. The question for the committee was how do you replace Georgia and Miami after their respective big losses? The contentious answer they decided upon was to round out the top with the rest of the ranked Big10. The Big10 currently has 4 ranked teams all within the top five as Penn State (#4) and Indiana (#5) moved up in the rankings, leaving the sole team from another conference as Texas at #3. Oregon and Ohio State’s records and play speak for themselves in their ranking and starting a season 10-0 in a power 5 conference regardless of schedule rightfully places Indiana at #5, but what about Penn State? Though the Nittany Lions currently hold a record of 8-1, their opponents have a combined record of 43-40. To be forthcoming the Nittany Lions did beat a bludgeoned 0-9 Kent State team, however that does not change the fact that Penn State does not have a win against a conference opponent with an in-conference record over .500. With no wins against currently ranked opponents and a loss at home against Ohio State where the Nittany Lions seemed outmatched in most facets of the game, the committee choosing to place the team at four seems like a vast over-rating.

Why would the committee place a team with no ranked wins that high up in the standings? It likely, comes down to conference make up. The Big10 is extremely competitive at its top level, however the rest of the conference lacks the depth of the SEC and therefore creates some fodder to bolster the records of the top teams. The SEC is undoubtedly the deepest conference in college football with 9 ranked teams in this week’s College Football Playoff poll, however these teams have cannibalized each other throughout conference play leading to a growing number of ranked 2-loss SEC teams. It’s these losses which are holding the conference out of the top of the playoff race, however with teams like Alabama (who currently leads College Football with 4 wins over ranked opponents) floating towards the middle of the SEC pack it’s hard to imagine many of these teams losing to a Penn State team with no ranked wins. Regardless of the current seedings, with four teams each currently projected to hold playoff spots it is evident that the Big10 and SEC are the preeminent conferences in college football, and with that feeling comes bias.

Bias is the one thing that could hurt a team like current Big12 favorite #6 BYU. The Cougars were able to create a magical come from behind victory in the “Holy War” rivalry game against Utah this past Saturday capping off the weeks action with a bang. So long as the Cougars continue to win their spot is safe in the playoffs however, Deion Sanders and #17 Colorado are hungry for a chance at glory. It seems all but a guarantee that Colorado vs BYU will be the Big12 championship matchup and though the Cougars are currently in the playoff picture, there is cause for concern that the committee may take a two loss SEC or Big10 team over a one loss Big12 runner-up BYU. The Big12 only sent one team to the College Football Playoff national championship game in its previous format, and TCU’s disastrous game against Georgia only proved to show that the level of competition may not be as high in the lower two conferences of the Power 4. Teams in the ACC will face a similar issue fighting against this bias, especially after the fall of their top ranked team this past weekend. Miami seemed to continuously find ways to escape the inconsistencies of their play through the talent of quarterback Cam Ward, however after the magic ran out against Georgia Tech, SMU is poised to take control of the ACC and punch their own ticket to the playoffs in their first year in the conference. Though, #9 Miami still may have a path to the playoffs with a close loss in the ACC championship due to the prestige built by their team this season.

For the teams in the remaining conferences, they will be reliant upon a conference championship to try and earn a shot at the final playoff spot. Unfortunately for them, #13 Boise State has looked unstoppable behind Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty and, so long as they win the Mountain West Conference Championship, they will earn the final spot in the playoffs. Since the automatic bids go to the highest ranked conference champions, should Boise State lose there is a tight race brewing in the American Athletic Conference. Currently the top two teams are #24 Army and #25 Tulane. So long as both teams are able to maintain their ranking, they would play for the final spot in the playoffs with a Boise State loss. There is also a window of possibility, wherein Boise State could lose, and an Army or Tulane could lose again, but win their conference. In this scenario the committee would be forced to pick the most deserving group of 5 champion placing all 5 champions at play. 

While these ratings have been some of the more contentious ones of the committee’s tenure, there is still one saving grace: the majority of these teams are going to have to play each other again. The top 12 will be shuffled again, and with Georgia and Tennessee set to play this weekend there is a chance the Bulldogs could be out of contention for the first time in half a decade. As for the four Big10 teams in the top 5, Ohio State and Indiana have a matchup in two weeks which will surely reset the top of the rankings, and with the winner of that game likely facing Oregon in the Big10 championship we are guaranteed two games between these teams to shake up the standings. as we’ve seen in this season of college football, anything can happen, and even the obvious wins are primed for upsets. So, as we continue all we can do is watch with bated breath as we march closer to College Football Playoff selection day.