Sports Talk

Continuity is often a harbinger of things to come, and, in the world of college football, continuity often means one thing: success. In week 13 of the first edition of the 12-team playoff, the committee has delivered a measured level of consistency across the top teams in the nation, with #11 Tennessee being the only team dropping out of the projected playoff as their at large bid would be superseded by a #14 ranked BYU as Big 12 Champion. With an unchanged top 5, however, comes a continuation of the questioning that started last week. Are the four Big 10 teams truly the best teams in the nation, or does the committee need to adjust the way in which they assess the top teams in the nation? So, let’s take a look around the week 13 edition of the college football playoff poll and see what we can learn from the rankings as we react and review the committees picks.

While there was little alteration in the overall makeup of the poll two major losses by BYU and Tennessee could prove to be key factors as we continue towards the playoffs. For fans of the Tennessee volunteers there is still a path forward towards a place in the playoff, however with only two weeks remaining in the college football season, it likely rests in key upsets during rivalry weekend on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. In fact, the Volunteers most direct path likely lies through a chance at the SEC championship. Tennessee currently stands at fourth place in the SEC; however, the top two teams, Texas A&M and Texas will play each other in the final game of the season and third ranked Georgia will be forced to match up against a Georgia Tech team in a rivalry game which proved to be uncomfortably close for the Bulldogs last season. The road to the playoffs for Tennessee, however, is not without its blockades as they will have to win against a Vanderbilt team which has lived for the upset behind the confident leadership of quarterback Diego Pavia. Furthermore, with the relatively inconsistent health of star freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, as his 6’6 215 lbs frame has increased the punishment felt by the hard-hitting defenders of the SEC, Tennessee is always one play away from disaster. However, in a year where anything can and has happened, the Vols are only one mistake from a higher ranked team away from a secured spot in the playoffs. 

Despite BYU’s loss against Kansas, their position in the Big 12 championship seems to be all but assured. As this Kansas team, which has become menacing as they’ve picked up consecutive ranked wins despite entering that stretch at 2-6, heads to Colorado next week to take on BYU’s anticipated conference championship opponent, the teams fall in the rankings has created the greater commotion among fans. Since the Cougars have fallen below #12 Boise State, they are now seeded as the 5^th conference champion, and while that may have little effect on a team’s ability to get into the playoffs, it does advance Boise State into a position in which they would receive a first-round bye. It would not be entirely unheard of for a group of five champion to finish as a top four ranked champion (Cincinnati would have notably accomplished this in 2021), however it does add an interesting wrinkle into the seeding of the playoffs as the initial reason for having five automatic bids was to create an avenue for the former power 5 conferences. While the departure of the Pac 12 did certainly introduce an interesting wrinkle by creating an avenue by which a group of 5 champion was guaranteed a bid, it was never expected that they would be in a position to receive a bye. Despite the Broncos’ stellar 1-loss season on the back of Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, Boise State has continued to dwindle towards the bottom of the playoff cutoff in the rankings. It’s likely that with a few dominant wins BYU would be in position to jump the Broncos and regain their bye, but this begs the question: why has the committee faltered from raising Boise State into the midst of the poll?

The easiest answer to this question is that it comes down to bias. The members of the Committee believe that Boise State’s schedule in the Mountain West frankly does not compare to that of the other teams vying for spots in the playoff. Interestingly, despite that notion, the data tells us a different story. ESPN in their assessment of college football statistics compiles a strength of schedule ranking for all 134 Division I-A (FBS) schools. As the poll currently sits there are two teams with a lower strength of schedule than Boise State (76^th) who are ranked above it. #6 Notre Dame, whose playoff bid is dependent upon their record as an independent, currently has the 82^nd ranked strength of schedule. When comparing the two teams you’ll find that both have a ranked win, (ND over Texas A&M and Boise State over UNLV) and that both currently hold one loss. The loss, however, is where the differences between the teams come out. While Notre Dame lost at home to a 6-5 Northern Illinois team in the Mid-American Conference, the Broncos lost to Big 10 favorite, and #1 overall team, Oregon in a game which was decided by a late field goal in Eugene. While Notre Dame has played more Power 4 conference teams, the records between the two are comparable to a point where a 6-spot difference in seeding seems disrespectful to a well-rounded Boise State team.

The other team currently ranked ahead of the Broncos is the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers, who currently hold the 106^thranked strength of schedule in the nation. The knock on the Big 10 this year has been its lack of depth; however, the committee seems to feel that winning in a premier conference regardless of opponents warrants high placement in the polls. In fact, in order to find a team with a strength of schedule higher than 28^th you have to travel down the poll to the 7^th ranked Alabama Crimson tide whose currently hold the 16^th strength of schedule. There is an argument to be made that part of the reason the Big 10 teams’ strength of schedule is so low is because they cannot play themselves, however, outside of a dominant Ohio State win over Penn State which has been discounted by the committee, they don’t appear to be playing each other either. The size of an expanded 18 team Big 10 has allowed Indiana to play a schedule without any currently ranked opponents so far. Furthermore, the Big 10 in its entirety seems to be propped upon a sequence of wins which is has locked Oregon into first place through confirmation bias even after a tight game at a middling Wisconsin could have dropped them in the rankings. The Ducks did beat Ohio State, and so they must be good and if the Buckeyes are good then Penn State’s loss to them is one of quality and so they deserve a high ranking, and so the cycle goes. 

While the Big 10’s depth and high-ranking teams have been in question, with every new week there comes a new opportunity for a team and a conference to prove its merit. There is one team on Indiana’s roster which has propped up its strength of schedule, and as all eyes turn to Columbus this weekend the Hoosiers have an opportunity to prove all the naysayers wrong and defeat the Buckeyes at home while securing their spot in the Big 10 Championship game against Oregon. In this season of college football, we’ve seen the impossible, the implausible, and the outright incredible, and as we continue to venture closer each week to College Football Playoff selection day the stories only grow larger and the stakes higher. The first iteration of the 12-team playoff will be instrumental in demonstrating how the playoff committee should weigh strength of schedule in their evaluations. So, whether or not you agree with the poll this week, one thing is for certain, it’ll be settled on the field with all our eyes watching.